AnalysisAs two safe Labor seats face by-elections, voters may heed an LNP call to send the government a message

AnalysisAs two safe Labor seats face by-elections, voters may heed an LNP call to send the government a message

Labor’s Challenge in Queensland By-Elections

Queensland’s newly appointed premier faces a potential challenge as by-elections loom alongside local government elections on March 16. Despite Steven Miles’ efforts to initiate a new chapter, the weight of incumbency threatens the Labor government.

Both Ipswich West and Inala are traditionally considered safe Labor strongholds. However, there is a looming concern in Ipswich West that voters might respond to the LNP’s message to “send a strong message” to the Miles administration.

The task ahead for the LNP’s Darren Zanow to surpass Labor’s Wendy Bourne necessitates a significant swing of over 14.3 per cent. While a victory seems improbable, ALP strategists are not dismissing the possibility.

LNP Ipswich West candidate Darren Zanow

LNP Ipswich West Candidate Darren Zanow’s Outlook on Labor By-Elections

The departure of Annastacia Palaszczuk has left a vacant seat in Inala, which is expected to remain in Labor’s hands despite potential losses. Palaszczuk held Inala with a significant 28.2% margin in 2020, ensuring a high likelihood of Labor retaining the seat.

For the first time in three decades, a Palaszczuk will not be contesting for Labor, as Annastacia Palaszczuk succeeded her father, Henry Palaszczuk, in the seat. The upcoming by-election poses a challenge for incumbent governments, often resulting in swings against them, especially in seats previously represented by well-known long-term MPs.

Reflecting on past events, Labor faced a double-digit negative swing in the Bundamba by-election of March 2020, coinciding with the local government poll. Despite the setback, Labor managed to maintain its position in Bundamba and even increased its vote share in the subsequent general election later that year.

Looking ahead, there is a possibility of Labor losing Ipswich West in a surprising turn of events, only to reclaim it in the future by heeding the underlying message from the electorate. The dynamics of by-elections and the sentiments of voters play a crucial role in shaping the political landscape.

‘Sending a Clear Message to the Government’

Opposition Leader David Crisafulli acknowledges the significant challenge ahead, describing it as “a big mountain” to climb.

Expressing his optimism, he stated, “We are providing voters with the chance to support change.”

Addressing issues such as the youth crime crisis, healthcare challenges, housing shortages, and the financial burdens caused by the Queensland cost of living crisis, there lies an opportunity to convey a powerful message to the government that the current approach is ineffective.

Labor by-elections LNP message

Crisafulli talking

In the realm of the Ipswich West electoral battle, Mr. Crisafulli acknowledges the significant challenge it poses for the LNP. Labor, in the context of the by-elections, emphasizes a key message. Darren Zanow, deeply rooted in Ipswich, is actively involved in managing Zanow’s Concrete and Quarries, alongside his role as the Ipswich Show Society president. He proudly identifies himself as a lifelong resident of Ipswich, having been born, raised, and residing there. The debate arises as Labor questions his residency in the Ipswich West electorate, advocating for Ms. Bourne, a 30-year inhabitant of Rosewood, as the sole “local” candidate. While some may view this distinction as trivial, it holds significance for many voters.

Labor by-elections LNP message

Labor by-elections LNP message

is a crucial election concern, especially following the tragic incident of Vyleen White’s fatal stabbing at Redbank Plains, which has brought youth crime into the spotlight.

Labor by-elections LNP message: Unveiling the Premier’s Strategy

Recent polling data sheds light on the premier’s strategic approach towards addressing key voter concerns. The survey indicates a clear correlation between the issues that voters are least content with and the specific areas the new premier is keen on reshaping.

a graphic of steven miles with a red background

### Labor by-elections LNP Message in Ipswich West

In a recent address in Ipswich, Mr. Crisafulli of the LNP pledged that a future LNP administration would implement real-time sharing of hospital and ambulance data within its initial 100 days. This commitment aims to enhance accountability among ministers and empower healthcare professionals to lead, ultimately addressing the deteriorating culture within Queensland Health that has been neglected by current ministers. The issue of accountability lies with the government in power.

Labor faces challenges in Ipswich West, notably a limited choice of preferences with only four candidates available, and the LNP and One Nation mutually supporting each other. Melody Lindsay from Legalise Cannabis Queensland is not explicitly directing preferences, while the Greens are absent from the race. Wendy Bourne represents the ALP in Ipswich West.

Both Ms. Bourne and Mr. Zanow have been actively engaging with the local community, with Ms. Bourne, a former Palaszczuk staffer, having visited over 3,000 homes. She noted a generally positive sentiment among voters but remains cautious not to assume anything.

Cost of living emerges as a primary concern among constituents, reflecting the electorate’s prevailing sentiment. Ipswich West saw a political shift in 2012 when the LNP briefly held power under Campbell Newman. The party now eyes an improbable victory on March 16 as a precursor to future developments.

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