**Relocating the Surface Combatant Review Launch**
On a rainy Tuesday, a sudden downpour at Sydney’s Garden Island Naval base prompted Defence Minister Richard Marles to swiftly move inside HMAS Canberra for the much-anticipated public unveiling of Labor’s Surface Combatant Review (SCR), initiated 10 months prior. The irony of introducing a policy aimed at revamping the navy with a higher quantity of smaller yet more potent warships, all while seeking refuge in a 27,000-tonne Landing Helicopter Dock, was not lost on those present for the announcement. In a time where sizeable Russian warships have been taken down by Ukraine’s resourceful military, and Houthi rebels are causing disruption for formidable navies in the Red Sea using makeshift missiles and drones, experts are raising doubts about the sustainability of future surface fleets.
On board HMAS Canberra, Vice Admiral David Johnston, Defence Department Deputy Secretary Jim McDowell, retired US Admiral William Hilarides, Rosemary Huxtable, and retired Vice Admiral Stuart Mayer were pictured together (ABC News: Andrew Greene).
According to Hugh White, a former senior Department of Defence official, the Russian fleet in the Black Sea has shown vulnerability to various capabilities devised by the Ukrainians on the spot. Numerous Russian ships have been successfully sunk, highlighting the inherent vulnerability of modern surface ships. White questions the government’s decision to heavily invest in surface ships, considering their susceptibility to attacks. He suggests that focusing on expensive anti-submarine warships and shipbuilding might be a more strategic approach.
Reshaping Australia’s Surface Naval Fleet
A comprehensive overview of Australia’s surface naval fleet transformation is essential for understanding the changes underway. The federal government’s new plan is set to significantly alter the composition of the fleet, impacting various vessels, including expensive anti-submarine warships, and the shipbuilding process.
In response to Tuesday’s announcement, various experts, including Malcolm Davis from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, praised the government’s plan as a logical and strategic step towards bolstering the Australian Navy’s capabilities.
However, Dr. Davis raised concerns about whether this plan would be adequate to counter the increasing threat posed by China’s expanding military capabilities and the evolving strategic landscape in Australia.
The “Enhanced Lethality Surface Combatant Fleet” initiative aims to increase the number of deployable Australian warships from 11 to 26 by the 2040s. Nevertheless, this expansion involves the retirement of Anzac class frigates before the fleet reaches its full potential.
Hunter-class Program Overcomes High Cost Concerns
Upon the initiation of its SCR in 2022, the Hunter-class frigate program inherited by Labor was anticipated to be a casualty due to its expensive nature and delays.
There was a prevailing belief within defense and industry sectors that the subsequent SCR, spearheaded by retired US Admiral William Hilarides in April 2023, presented an opportunity for the government to justify the continuation of the costly South Australian shipbuilding project.
Just before unveiling its response to the SCR, the government disclosed the discovery of a significant financial gap of approximately $20 billion in the Hunter program. Despite this revelation, the government confirmed its decision to proceed with the construction of six of the pricey British-designed anti-submarine warships, instead of the initially planned nine.
The claim that the Hunter frigate is the priciest warship of its type is fiercely debated by the British-owned company BAE Systems. According to a former member of the project team, Australia’s forthcoming anti-submarine warfare (ASW) fleet comprised of Hunter frigates, with an undisclosed budget, is projected to become the most expensive warships of their kind globally. The ex-official, speaking anonymously to the ABC, anticipates that the Adelaide-manufactured vessels will be remarkably costly, potentially surpassing the price of a nuclear-powered submarine upon delivery.
The former official suggests that there are alternative options that could be delivered more swiftly and affordably, albeit not on par with the Hunter frigates. These alternatives could offer a substantial capability to the navy within a relevant timeframe. The evaluation of the Hunter as the most expensive warship in its category is challenged by BAE Systems, the company entrusted with the significant project by the Turnbull government in 2018 after a fiercely contested bidding process.
Within the SEA5000 project, insiders argue that it is absorbing substantial costs for the national shipbuilding initiative, encompassing initial expenditures like establishing shipyards, IT infrastructure, and cultivating a proficient workforce. Concerns loom over the possibility that successive Australian administrations will have expended over $20 billion on this cutting-edge capability before the arrival of the first Hunter class frigate in 2032.
Despite the challenges, BAE Systems appears to be in a favorable position to secure a potential future contract for constructing replacement Air Warfare Destroyers (AWD) that could draw inspiration from the existing Hunter hull design. Additionally, they are poised to secure lucrative AUKUS submarine projects.
Navy Takes Risk with Advanced Unmanned Technology
The United States has been investing in autonomous naval technology, also known as ghost ships, for years. The Australian government has recently decided to invest in six “Large Optionally Crewed Surface Vessels,” embracing this futuristic and uncrewed approach.
In the realm of expensive anti-submarine warship and shipbuilding, the Navy’s bold move towards futuristic uncrewed technology showcases a significant shift in naval operations.
Australia’s Plan to Acquire Optionally Crewed Vessels
Australia is set to procure six new “optionally crewed” vessels, a move that Admiral Hilarides, a key figure in the independent SCR panel, strongly supports. These drone vessels are expected to be armed with 32 Vertical Launch System (VLS) cells, mirroring the configuration planned for each Hunter class frigate.
The government has embraced the SCR’s advice to become a “fast follower” of the US program, aiming to stay abreast of advancements. However, the defense minister has hinted that the delivery of these vessels may not occur until the mid-2030s, potentially lagging a decade behind the United States. This delay is concerning given the current shortage of missile-launching ships in Australia.
Participating early in state-of-the-art and evolving military initiatives can be highly advantageous, despite the costly risks involved. Recent global incidents have underscored the significance of having the capability to deploy surface vessels autonomously, especially in scenarios where human presence may be compromised.
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