China’s Growing Presence in Antarctica: An Analysis
Amidst the recent inauguration of China’s fifth research station in Antarctica, concerns have been raised by analysts regarding potential security risks in Australia’s vicinity.
Experts have cautioned that China’s increasing involvement in Antarctica, coupled with Australia’s passive stance and insufficient funding, may pave the way for Beijing to establish a stronger strategic foothold in the icy continent.
The establishment of the new Qinling base is speculated to enhance China’s surveillance capabilities and grant it greater authority over transportation routes for resource exploitation.
Despite these apprehensions, a spokesperson from the Chinese Foreign Ministry has affirmed that the newly inaugurated station is intended to serve as a hub for collaborative scientific research and partnerships between China and other nations, aiming to promote peace and sustainable development in the region.
China’s 40th Antarctic scientific expedition team is actively engaged in establishing China’s Qinling Station in Antarctica. According to Elizabeth Buchanan from the Australian National University’s National Security College, the Chinese government demonstrates exceptional long-term planning capabilities. Dr. Buchanan highlighted that the primary focus of the research station for the next two decades is collaborative international research. However, she also mentioned the potential for the station to evolve into a strategic staging platform in the future, emphasizing its significance in terms of China’s Antarctica presence analysis.
Strategic Importance of Qinling Station’s Location
The significance of Qinling station’s location lies in its strategic positioning within the ice-free Ross Sea, allowing year-round staffing.
Dr. Buchanan emphasized the advantage of an ice-free base, enabling personnel to access it regardless of the season, enhancing its strategic value.
China’s establishment of Qinling serves to expand its presence across the Antarctic landmass, enhancing its strategic reach.
Dr. Buchanan highlighted the importance of presence in exerting power, emphasizing the benefits for satellite launches from an additional location.
Suggesting collaboration, Dr. Buchanan proposed Australia’s involvement in developing a year-round airstrip at Qinling, advocating for resource pooling with India and other nations.
Furthermore, Beijing’s new Qinling base strategically overlooks the Pacific arc, offering unimpeded access without choke points.
China’s Presence in Antarctica: An Analysis
Qinling emerges as the latest Chinese station to commence operations in Antarctica, as reported by ABC News’ Erwin Renaldi. Vessels traversing the Panama and Suez Canal encounter obstacles due to decreasing water levels, a consequence of drought worsened by climate change. Consequently, the canals have been compelled to reduce the maximum depth allowance for ships, resulting in a decline in maritime activity. The Drake Passage, a tumultuous waterway situated between South America and China’s Great Wall station in Antarctica, could potentially serve as a more favored alternate route. Over the past decade, China has invested in constructing infrastructure in Chile and various regions of Argentina, granting them the capability to regulate the passage. Dr. Buchanan highlighted the possibility of China manipulating the Drake Passage, stating that they could impede passage and oversee shipping by deploying additional vessels for monitoring and potential obstruction.
Looming military concerns
Former Australian Antarctic Division chief, Tony Press, expressed his views on the new Qinling base and its impact on surveillance activities. Press believes that China’s existing surveillance operations worldwide mitigate any potential increase in surveillance risk posed by the new base.
Press emphasized that China’s establishment of the Qinling station aligns with the core principles of the Antarctic Treaty, focusing on peaceful and non-militarized activities. This compliance was confirmed during Australia’s inspection of the station in 2020.
Australian scientists are urging the government to increase funding in Antarctica to keep pace with China’s significant investments in the region. According to Mr. Press, Australia’s insufficient investment in Antarctic science and logistics capabilities, especially the limited ability to operate across all parts of Antarctica year-round, is concerning. Monitoring compliance at stations is allowed under the Antarctic Treaty, with inspections open to any treaty party following a consultative meeting. Mr. Press suggested enhancing Australia’s inspection capabilities to ensure mutual assurance among treaty members.
Regarding security concerns, the Department of Foreign Affairs pointed to the Antarctic Treaty’s provisions prohibiting the militarization of Antarctica. Signed in 1959 during the Cold War, the treaty established Antarctica as a “natural reserve dedicated to peace and scientific research.” Australia, an original signatory, asserts sovereignty over 42% of the continent, a claim recognized by only four other nations.
Research by Anne-Marie Brady revealed instances where China failed to disclose military personnel usage in Antarctica, including a logistics expert from the People’s Liberation Army setting up the BeiDou-2 global positioning system. China’s expansion of dual-use satellite receiving ground stations in Antarctica enhances the accuracy of its BeiDou navigation system, akin to GPS. Brady noted that these stations and China’s territorial aspirations could aid in preparing for precision missile strikes and satellite system targeting and communication.
Moreover, China, Russia, and the US are advancing technology to produce high-frequency electromagnetic pulses capable of disrupting or damaging enemy electronics. Beijing has refuted Western media claims of sensationalizing its activities in Antarctica, with the ABC seeking comment from the Chinese embassy in Canberra on the matter.
The Growing Influence of China in Antarctica
As the competition for marine resources in the South China Sea grows more intense, experts like Daniel Bray from La Trobe University suggest that China might extend its reach to fishing in Antarctica, including for krill, a vital food source for ecosystems and medicines.
China has been increasing its krill fishing activities in the ecologically rich waters of Antarctica, causing concern among conservationists and scientists who advocate for stricter regulations.
Despite the concerns, discussions on monitoring and overfishing have proven challenging as countries are cautious not to upset China too much, according to Mr. Bray.
Dr. Buchanan highlighted China’s strategic advantage in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, with its expanding shipbuilding capabilities and a fleet of locally constructed Antarctic icebreakers, potentially allowing China to dominate and exclude other nations from these areas.
She emphasized the significance of controlling the seas as a means to influence global commerce and shape international relations.
Experts speculate that China’s activities in Antarctica may position the country favorably in the event of a future rush for minerals, resources, and sovereignty claims, especially if the Antarctic Treaty dissolves.
Emperor penguins can be spotted on the sea ice of the Brunt Ice Shelf in Antarctica, as captured in an image by the British Antarctic Survey’s Peter Fretwell. According to Mr. Bray, an important but often overlooked resource in Antarctica is freshwater, which could potentially spark future conflicts over water. He expressed concerns that if the trust established by the treaty diminishes, it may result in competition particularly in the region south of Australia. Dr. Buchanan highlighted the significant mineral, hydrocarbon, oil, and gas reserves on the continent, along with the fact that Antarctica holds 70% of the Earth’s freshwater. He emphasized China’s strategic positioning for the long term in anticipation of potential resource disputes in the region. This is evident in the China Antarctica presence analysis.
Enhancing Our Presence in Antarctica
According to Dr. Buchanan, the Australian government is not adequately acknowledging China’s growing influence in Antarctica. She expressed concern that Australia is neglecting this issue, referring to the country as being “asleep at the wheel.”
Dr. Buchanan highlighted Canberra’s lack of capability to effectively monitor China’s activities in the strategic region spanning from the Indian to the Pacific oceans, crucial for fishing activities.
She urged the government to take proactive steps such as appointing a dedicated Antarctic ambassador, increasing the number of marine vessels, and developing Hobart as a refuelling hub to support large icebreakers.
While the former Morrison administration pledged $804 million over a decade to strengthen Australia’s presence in Antarctica, recent budget constraints led the Australian Antarctic Division to consider downsizing due to financial pressures.
Dr. Buchanan emphasized the inadequacy of relying solely on the RSV Nuyina icebreaker to support Australia’s scientific research team in Antarctica, stressing the need for additional resources.
Analysis of China’s Presence in Antarctica
The RSV Nuyina, Australia’s recently launched Antarctic icebreaker in 2018, signifies a significant step in the country’s commitment to Antarctic exploration. Despite this investment, Australia lacks the necessary monitoring capabilities to effectively track China’s activities in the region.
According to Mr. Bray, China has been vocal about its intentions to claim its fair share of resources in Antarctica. This assertion raises concerns about Australia’s ability to oversee and respond to China’s growing presence in the area.
When questioned about the insufficient funding for monitoring activities, a DFAT spokesperson emphasized Australia’s dedication to the Antarctic Treaty system. This commitment includes adhering to regulations that promote non-militarization, environmental preservation, and the facilitation of scientific research in Antarctica.
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