Managing the Colorado River Amid Climate Change Challenges
**A Glimpse into the Colorado River’s Future**
In a picturesque scene near Page, Arizona, a man gazes out over the Colorado River on Nov. 2, 2022. The seven states overseeing the river face a dilemma on how to address the repercussions of climate change in their new water-sharing strategies.
Diverging Paths of the Seven States
As a crucial deadline approaches, the seven states sharing the Colorado River have unveiled contrasting proposals on its future management. Divided into two factions, the Upper Basin states (Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming) stand opposed to their Lower Basin counterparts (California, Arizona, and Nevada).
Historical Water Management Disputes
Throughout the past century, these two factions have frequently clashed over water management issues. With climate change impacting the river’s water supply, the urgency to curb demand has intensified.
Pressing Need for New Guidelines
Although the current river-sharing guidelines are valid until 2026, the Biden Administration has set a mid-March deadline for new proposals. The looming November election adds complexity, potentially affecting the implementation of new regulations.
Proposed Plans and Climate Change Concerns
Neither of the competing plans submitted recently is final. The Upper Basin states’ proposal emphasizes a key point: the Upper Basin states are disproportionately affected by climate change, leading to reduced snow in the river’s originating mountains.
Addressing Imbalances for Sustainable Water Management
Becky Mitchell, Colorado’s chief water negotiator, stresses the need to move away from the existing Colorado River operational norms. She emphasizes the importance of adapting to the current reality and conditions of Lake Powell and Lake Mead. Planning for the river’s present state, rather than an idealized version, is crucial for ensuring water security for the 40 million individuals reliant on this vital water source.
Impact of Colorado River Drought
The current situation with the Colorado River is dire, with reservoirs like Lake Powell facing unprecedented water shortages. In response, Mitchell and other officials in the Upper Basin are working on a new strategy to manage water releases from Lake Powell, which reached a historic low of only 20% capacity in 2023.
Proposals from the Upper Basin states include reducing water releases to as low as 6 million acre-feet annually, below the current legal requirement of 7.5 million acre-feet. This new plan, however, raises legal uncertainties as it challenges the 1922 Colorado River Compact’s stipulation that the Upper Division states must not deplete the river’s flow below a certain level.
The Upper Basin states argue that the decrease in water flow is primarily due to climate change rather than their water usage, a stance that has yet to be tested in court. This disagreement over water management between states upstream and downstream of the dam is a major obstacle in the negotiations regarding the Colorado River’s future.
Leaders in the Lower Basin express skepticism about the feasibility of the proposed reductions, emphasizing the need for proactive responses to climate change rather than getting bogged down in legal debates. JB Hamby, California’s chief water negotiator, stresses the importance of addressing the impacts of climate change on the Colorado River basin.
Colorado River Drought Impact: Negotiators Address Water Management Challenges
At the Colorado River Water Users Association annual meeting in Las Vegas on Dec. 14, 2023, John Entsminger, JB Hamby, and Tom Buschatzke, representing the Lower Basin states of Nevada, California, and Arizona, discussed critical water management issues.
Alex Hager/KUNC
John Entsminger (left), JB Hamby, and Tom Buschatzke sit on a panel at the Colorado River Water Users Association annual meeting in Las Vegas on Dec. 14, 2023. The three men are top negotiators for the Colorado River’s Lower Basin states of Nevada, California, and Arizona.
Addressing the pressing concern of Lake Powell’s declining levels has been a focal point of Colorado River management in recent years. If water levels fall below the intake tubes for hydropower turbines within Glen Canyon Dam, the electric generators supplying about five million people across seven states would need to be shut down. Further decline to a level known as “dead pool” could render the dam inoperable.
To combat this issue, emergency water releases from upstream reservoirs have been initiated, prompting environmental groups to advocate for contingency plans in the absence of the Glen Canyon Dam.
The proposal from the Upper Basin states emphasizes the importance of mitigating the dead pool scenario as a key objective of its recommended regulations. On the other hand, the Lower Basin states put forth their own strategy, which includes a novel framework for assessing water levels in western reservoirs and a method for implementing water cutbacks accordingly.
Currently, water levels in the Colorado River system are primarily monitored by the elevations of Lake Powell and Lake Mead. The Lower Basin states propose a more comprehensive approach that incorporates additional reservoirs such as Blue Mesa in Colorado, Navajo in New Mexico, and Flaming Gorge in Wyoming and Utah into the assessment.
The Lower Basin states’ plan suggests utilizing data from the broader system to determine when to implement water allocation reductions to different states and the extent of these cutbacks. While the existing regulations mandate cutbacks for Lower Basin states during shortages, the new proposal introduces a system where Upper Basin states would also face reductions once reservoir storage falls below a specified threshold.
JB Hamby emphasized the necessity of adaptation and sacrifice across the region, stating, “The Lower Basin is home to three-quarters of the Colorado River Basin’s population, most tribal communities, and some of the most fertile farmland in the nation. Our proposal calls for adjustments and contributions from water users throughout the area.”
The impact of the Colorado River drought: a lack of consensus could signal progress
Experts in policy analysis have proposed that the contrasting suggestions regarding the impact of the Colorado River drought this week represent a crucial advancement in reaching a mutual understanding. These proposals may serve as a vital initial stage before negotiators can ultimately reach a consensus.
Elizabeth Koebele, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Nevada, Reno, emphasized the importance of viewing the entire basin as a unified system in the context of the Colorado River drought impact. She highlighted that both proposed plans contain aspects that align with this holistic approach, suggesting potential areas for convergence in a future consensus plan.
Colorado River Drought Impact: Collaborative Efforts in Basin States
Both the Upper Basin and Lower Basin states, despite differences in their proposals, express willingness to engage in further discussions with the aim of reaching a mutual agreement.
Estevan López, the top water negotiator for New Mexico, expressed anticipation for collaborating with neighboring Lower Basin states to address discrepancies in strategies and develop a unified alternative supported by all seven states, as stated in a press release regarding the impact of the Colorado River drought.
In managing Western dams and reservoirs, the Bureau of Reclamation officials anticipate collaborating with states throughout the spring and summer to develop a preliminary plan for post-2026 river management by late 2024 amidst the Colorado River drought impact.
